2018 American Community Survey Form (www.census.gov).
by Tony Petrangelo
Jan 23, 2019, 7:00 AM

A look at the updated American Community Survey numbers for Minnesota

At the beginning of the year the United State Census Bureau released updated results from the American Community Survey, a massive continuous survey project the bureau undertakes between censuses. With redistricting coming up in 2021 it’s perhaps worth checking in on the updated ACS numbers to see what’s been going on in Minnesota and how that will effect the next set of maps. For reference, I’m looking at the 5-year estimates, so the survey data spans from January 1, 2013 to December 31, 2017.

First, the basic stuff.

2010 Pop 2017 Pop change
Total 5,303,925 5,490,726 186,801
Senate target 79,164 81,952 2,788
House target 39,582 40,976 1,394

The overall population of the state of Minnesota has increased by over 185,000, from just over 5.3 million to ten thousand short of 5.5 million. That means the population target for a Senate district would be almost 82,000, a house district just over 40,000.

It’s probably not hard to guess where that growth is occurring, but would you be surprised to learn that 88% of that 186,801 increase happened in the seven counties that make up the metro, Anoka, Carver, Dakota, Hennepin, Ramsey, Scott and Washington.

2010 Pop 2017 Pop change
Metro 7 2,849,567 3,013,413 163,846
Senate seats 36 36.8 0.8
House seats 72 73.5 1.5
Outstate 80 2,454,358 2,477,313 22,955
Senate seats 31 30.2 -0.8
House seats 62 60.5 -1.5

The uneven growth so far this decade has lead to the metro adding one Senate and one and a half House seats in the next set of maps.

What becomes clear looking at these numbers is how damaging it is for Republicans future prospects in Minnesota if the suburbs continue to behave like they did in this last election.

Below is a table of all 87 counties for anyone who’s curious.

UPDATE: The last column is the % of the statewide change, not the percentage change from 2010. I’ve updated the label of the column. Thanks to those who pointed it out.

County 17 Pop 10 Pop # change % of statewide change
Aitkin 15,841 16,202 -361 0%
Anoka 344,861 330,844 14,017 8%
Becker 33,552 32,504 1,048 1%
Beltrami 45,847 44,442 1,405 1%
Benton 39,360 38,451 909 0%
Big Stone 5,039 5,269 -230 0%
Blue Earth 65,767 64,013 1,754 1%
Brown 25,243 25,893 -650 0%
Carlton 35,408 35,386 22 0%
Carver 98,799 91,042 7,757 4%
Cass 28,810 28,567 243 0%
Chippewa 12,040 12,441 -401 0%
Chisago 54,297 53,887 410 0%
Clay 62,040 58,999 3,041 2%
Clearwater 8,824 8,695 129 0%
Cook 5,270 5,176 94 0%
Cottonwood 11,437 11,687 -250 0%
Crow Wing 63,505 62,500 1,005 1%
Dakota 414,655 398,552 16,103 9%
Dodge 20,485 20,087 398 0%
Douglas 36,891 36,009 882 0%
Faribault 13,966 14,553 -587 0%
Fillmore 20,825 20,866 -41 0%
Freeborn 30,619 31,255 -636 0%
Goodhue 46,138 46,183 -45 0%
Grant 5,923 6,018 -95 0%
Hennepin 1,224,763 1,152,425 72,338 39%
Houston 18,709 19,027 -318 0%
Hubbard 20,743 20,428 315 0%
Isanti 38,584 37,816 768 0%
Itasca 45,237 45,058 179 0%
Jackson 10,104 10,266 -162 0%
Kanabec 15,948 16,239 -291 0%
Kandiyohi 42,577 42,239 338 0%
Kittson 4,384 4,552 -168 0%
Koochiching 12,776 13,311 -535 0%
Lac qui Parle 6,840 7,259 -419 0%
Lake 10,578 10,866 -288 0%
Lake of the Woods 3,841 4,045 -204 0%
Le Sueur 27,810 27,703 107 0%
Lincoln 5,724 5,896 -172 0%
Lyon 25,789 25,857 -68 0%
McLeod 35,816 36,651 -835 0%
Mahnomen 5,500 5,413 87 0%
Marshall 9,397 9,439 -42 0%
Martin 20,084 20,840 -756 0%
Meeker 23,105 23,300 -195 0%
Mille Lacs 25,635 26,097 -462 0%
Morrison 32,880 33,198 -318 0%
Mower 39,386 39,163 223 0%
Murray 8,394 8,725 -331 0%
Nicollet 33,477 32,727 750 0%
Nobles 21,854 21,378 476 0%
Norman 6,589 6,852 -263 0%
Olmsted 151,685 144,248 7,437 4%
Otter Tail 57,790 57,303 487 0%
Pennington 14,197 13,930 267 0%
Pine 29,057 29,750 -693 0%
Pipestone 9,229 9,596 -367 0%
Polk 31,564 31,600 -36 0%
Pope 10,932 10,995 -63 0%
Ramsey 537,893 508,640 29,253 16%
Red Lake 4,017 4,089 -72 0%
Redwood 15,430 16,059 -629 0%
Renville 14,798 15,730 -932 0%
Rice 65,251 64,142 1,109 1%
Rock 9,433 9,687 -254 0%
Roseau 15,537 15,629 -92 0%
St. Louis 200,294 200,226 68 0%
Scott 141,463 129,928 11,535 6%
Sherburne 92,024 88,499 3,525 2%
Sibley 14,888 15,226 -338 0%
Stearns 155,300 150,642 4,658 2%
Steele 36,612 36,576 36 0%
Stevens 9,759 9,726 33 0%
Swift 9,448 9,783 -335 0%
Todd 24,423 24,895 -472 0%
Traverse 3,357 3,558 -201 0%
Wabasha 21,490 21,676 -186 0%
Wadena 13,626 13,843 -217 0%
Waseca 18,898 19,136 -238 0%
Washington 250,979 238,136 12,843 7%
Watonwan 10,936 11,211 -275 0%
Wilkin 6,398 6,576 -178 0%
Winona 50,992 51,461 -469 0%
Wright 131,130 124,700 6,430 3%
Yellow Medicine 9,930 10,438 -508 0%

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